shows that Japan company has extremely faced the tough going. (The following countings are the one of the overall industries except the financial institution. Seasonally adjusted)｡
First of all, the growth rate of the same period of the between last year of the top line became dropping the the greatest by 20.4% decrease in the past.
It became 31.4% decrease in manufacture.
The growth rate of the same period of the between last year of the ordinary income : in 69.0% decrease.
It became the worst dropping in the past more than period (64.5%) on the October-December at the first oil crisis of 1974.
Decreased earnings become seven term serial. In manufacture, it became 141.7% decrease.
The top line ordinary income rate became 1.4%. Manufacture is -2.7%.
It is important that the decreasing rate of the profit is larger than that of the drop in sales rate.
When sales decrease from the threshold with setback Shite and the operation rate, it is understood that the profit decreases suddenly.
The growth rate of amount of capital investment was subtracted by eight term serial in 25.3% decrease.
Amount of capital investment except the software that becomes basic that estimates gross domestic product (GDP) become 11,587,100,000,000 yen of 25.4% decrease. 8.6% setback lingua (There is a possibility to be changed in the second preliminary report of the announcement schedule on June 11 though the proportion expansion of the previous term of a private plant and equipment nominal seasonally adjusted figure was -11.2% in the GDP preliminary report announced on May 20) compared with the seasonal adjustment Shite previous term.
All of the top line, the ordinary income, and the capital investment seen above became decreasing rates of the the greatest in 1955 a possible comparison.
The time series row transition of the ordinary income is as shown in 【 diagram 1].
Dropping the previous term proportion for the period on the January-March of'09 is alleviated compared with dropping for the period on the October-December of'08.
However, it is important that manufacture fall to the deficit.
All types of industries except food including the machine and the Info-Com. machine for the transport such as cars and deficits.
It is the first situation that the income before extraordinary items of manufacture becomes a deficit.
Even if the overall industry is seen, the level 4,267,600,000,000 yen of the ordinary income at the period of the January-March (original numerical value before the seasonal adjustment) is an extremely low.
The level of about 1/4 compared with 16,667,100,000,000 yen at the period on the January-March of'07 that is the peak.
It is bright compared with 9,388,100,000,000 yen at the period on the April-June of'02, and half a level.
Corporate profits will drop more intensely than GDPs though a present GDP is a level in about 02.
This is a level in about 93. (4,813,600,000,000 yen in the period on the July-September of'93. It doesn't show in the diagram. )｡
The profit of Japan company will have returned to the level about 15 years ago.
Severe situation that will continue in the future
How will you change in the future?
This is a decreasing rate and an almost par of the industrial production index though the decreasing rate of sales of manufacture is about 30% until about March.
And, the industrial production index changed to an increase in April.
Sales of the enterprise are high the possibility of changing to the expansion of the plus since April when being guess in the future.
However, it is thought that the profit doesn't recover. The reason thought about so is following.
It decreased, and it was dropped up to 0.8% for the period of the October-December by 2.9% for the period on the January-March of'09 for the period on the July-September of'08 though the gross capital operating margin had sustained the level that exceeded 3% in continuation Shite after the period on the October-December of'02 as 1.7%.
The other side, the long-term interest rate (Government bond yield for one 0 years) is levels of about 1.3%, and it is higher than the gross capital operating margin of the enterprise.
In a word, the gross capital operating margin of the enterprise will have fallen below the cost of money.
The profit ratio cannot help decreasing when sales drop the operation rate, and decreasing.
Even if sales increase somewhat, this state cannot be gotten rid of under the present situation ..with the overcapacity...
Therefore, the possibility of the ordinary income rate to keep languishing is strong in the future.
It is possible to look no easy recovery of the corporate profit from the expectation of the accounts for the year ending March in 2010 made public when the accounts for the year ending March is announced in 2009.
As for 1207 Tokyo Stock Exchance 1st section listed enterprise companies, the top line is 11.2% decrease for the period on March, 2010, and the ordinary income is the expectation of 5.0% decrease according to the total of Shinko General Institute (May 25).
Being not able to raise the profit like this over a long period of time means the industry of Japan has already lost the significance of existence.
Existing gives the influence of the minus to the entire economy.
This has an influence big as for the tax revenue of the corporate tax. In the corporate tax, the profit will go up in the future because the postponement of the damage is perceived and the corporate tax will not go up for the time being in accrual Shite.
A basic review is demanded from the tax structure of Japan.
Does the stock price correctly discount the business profit expectation?
Does the stock price discount the setback of the business profit seen above?
The Nikkei Stock Average of about the summer of 07 years was about 18,000 yen. The 1/4 is about 4500 yen.
The first Nikkei Stock Average is about 9500 yen in June, '09 the other side.
Therefore, it can be interpreted that a present stock price is written up by the twice or more if it is thought that the stock price of about the summer of 07 years correctly reflected a business profit at that time.
You bet it is, and in such construction, there is a considerably arbitrary part, too.
The assumption of construction above is "The stock price of about the summer of 07 years correctly reflected a business profit at that time. "
It is not though it confirms actually so though thought that this assumption is not too amusing.
Moreover, the stock price reflects not a present profit but the profit in the future.
And, the profit in the future is not understood.
However, it is thought that the stock price has correctly reflected the transition of the business profit even if it sees in middle term.
However, a recent stock price seems to be a deployment without the subjectivity of nothing but synchronizing with the United States stock price.
Or, it is thought whether the roller is large according to the expectation without the rationale of young country demand.
Sales do not expand if the unit price is cheap though it might be true that the sale quantity increases in the young country.
Even if the car expands in the young country, the maintenance of sales cannot be done with a low-priced car of 200,000 yen each if the number ten times the car for current developed countries is not sold.
Moreover, the profit decreases surely even if the maintenance of sales can be done.
Between fact "The young country grows up" and "The profit of Japan company increases if corresponding to it", there are steps of the floor one step how many.
I think that it violates a logical mistake by the one for such a step to have jumped over of a recent argument.
Actually, it is a corporate profit, and not a top line (【 diagram 2] is seen) that the stock price the relationship is strong even if historical data is seen.
Do it return in the basis, and isn't a calm judgment of earnings of Japan company .."The stock price is a present discounted value of the dividend (Or, corporate profit) in the future".. necessary?
http://diamond.jp/series/noguchi_economy/10024/
Japan is good country!
http://japan-power.net/
PLEASE come here!
First of all, the growth rate of the same period of the between last year of the top line became dropping the the greatest by 20.4% decrease in the past.
It became 31.4% decrease in manufacture.
The growth rate of the same period of the between last year of the ordinary income : in 69.0% decrease.
It became the worst dropping in the past more than period (64.5%) on the October-December at the first oil crisis of 1974.
Decreased earnings become seven term serial. In manufacture, it became 141.7% decrease.
The top line ordinary income rate became 1.4%. Manufacture is -2.7%.
It is important that the decreasing rate of the profit is larger than that of the drop in sales rate.
When sales decrease from the threshold with setback Shite and the operation rate, it is understood that the profit decreases suddenly.
The growth rate of amount of capital investment was subtracted by eight term serial in 25.3% decrease.
Amount of capital investment except the software that becomes basic that estimates gross domestic product (GDP) become 11,587,100,000,000 yen of 25.4% decrease. 8.6% setback lingua (There is a possibility to be changed in the second preliminary report of the announcement schedule on June 11 though the proportion expansion of the previous term of a private plant and equipment nominal seasonally adjusted figure was -11.2% in the GDP preliminary report announced on May 20) compared with the seasonal adjustment Shite previous term.
All of the top line, the ordinary income, and the capital investment seen above became decreasing rates of the the greatest in 1955 a possible comparison.
The time series row transition of the ordinary income is as shown in 【 diagram 1].
Dropping the previous term proportion for the period on the January-March of'09 is alleviated compared with dropping for the period on the October-December of'08.
However, it is important that manufacture fall to the deficit.
All types of industries except food including the machine and the Info-Com. machine for the transport such as cars and deficits.
It is the first situation that the income before extraordinary items of manufacture becomes a deficit.
Even if the overall industry is seen, the level 4,267,600,000,000 yen of the ordinary income at the period of the January-March (original numerical value before the seasonal adjustment) is an extremely low.
The level of about 1/4 compared with 16,667,100,000,000 yen at the period on the January-March of'07 that is the peak.
It is bright compared with 9,388,100,000,000 yen at the period on the April-June of'02, and half a level.
Corporate profits will drop more intensely than GDPs though a present GDP is a level in about 02.
This is a level in about 93. (4,813,600,000,000 yen in the period on the July-September of'93. It doesn't show in the diagram. )｡
The profit of Japan company will have returned to the level about 15 years ago.
Severe situation that will continue in the future
How will you change in the future?
This is a decreasing rate and an almost par of the industrial production index though the decreasing rate of sales of manufacture is about 30% until about March.
And, the industrial production index changed to an increase in April.
Sales of the enterprise are high the possibility of changing to the expansion of the plus since April when being guess in the future.
However, it is thought that the profit doesn't recover. The reason thought about so is following.
It decreased, and it was dropped up to 0.8% for the period of the October-December by 2.9% for the period on the January-March of'09 for the period on the July-September of'08 though the gross capital operating margin had sustained the level that exceeded 3% in continuation Shite after the period on the October-December of'02 as 1.7%.
The other side, the long-term interest rate (Government bond yield for one 0 years) is levels of about 1.3%, and it is higher than the gross capital operating margin of the enterprise.
In a word, the gross capital operating margin of the enterprise will have fallen below the cost of money.
The profit ratio cannot help decreasing when sales drop the operation rate, and decreasing.
Even if sales increase somewhat, this state cannot be gotten rid of under the present situation ..with the overcapacity...
Therefore, the possibility of the ordinary income rate to keep languishing is strong in the future.
It is possible to look no easy recovery of the corporate profit from the expectation of the accounts for the year ending March in 2010 made public when the accounts for the year ending March is announced in 2009.
As for 1207 Tokyo Stock Exchance 1st section listed enterprise companies, the top line is 11.2% decrease for the period on March, 2010, and the ordinary income is the expectation of 5.0% decrease according to the total of Shinko General Institute (May 25).
Being not able to raise the profit like this over a long period of time means the industry of Japan has already lost the significance of existence.
Existing gives the influence of the minus to the entire economy.
This has an influence big as for the tax revenue of the corporate tax. In the corporate tax, the profit will go up in the future because the postponement of the damage is perceived and the corporate tax will not go up for the time being in accrual Shite.
A basic review is demanded from the tax structure of Japan.
Does the stock price correctly discount the business profit expectation?
Does the stock price discount the setback of the business profit seen above?
The Nikkei Stock Average of about the summer of 07 years was about 18,000 yen. The 1/4 is about 4500 yen.
The first Nikkei Stock Average is about 9500 yen in June, '09 the other side.
Therefore, it can be interpreted that a present stock price is written up by the twice or more if it is thought that the stock price of about the summer of 07 years correctly reflected a business profit at that time.
You bet it is, and in such construction, there is a considerably arbitrary part, too.
The assumption of construction above is "The stock price of about the summer of 07 years correctly reflected a business profit at that time. "
It is not though it confirms actually so though thought that this assumption is not too amusing.
Moreover, the stock price reflects not a present profit but the profit in the future.
And, the profit in the future is not understood.
However, it is thought that the stock price has correctly reflected the transition of the business profit even if it sees in middle term.
However, a recent stock price seems to be a deployment without the subjectivity of nothing but synchronizing with the United States stock price.
Or, it is thought whether the roller is large according to the expectation without the rationale of young country demand.
Sales do not expand if the unit price is cheap though it might be true that the sale quantity increases in the young country.
Even if the car expands in the young country, the maintenance of sales cannot be done with a low-priced car of 200,000 yen each if the number ten times the car for current developed countries is not sold.
Moreover, the profit decreases surely even if the maintenance of sales can be done.
Between fact "The young country grows up" and "The profit of Japan company increases if corresponding to it", there are steps of the floor one step how many.
I think that it violates a logical mistake by the one for such a step to have jumped over of a recent argument.
Actually, it is a corporate profit, and not a top line (【 diagram 2] is seen) that the stock price the relationship is strong even if historical data is seen.
Do it return in the basis, and isn't a calm judgment of earnings of Japan company .."The stock price is a present discounted value of the dividend (Or, corporate profit) in the future".. necessary?
http://diamond.jp/series/noguchi_economy/10024/
Japan is good country!
http://japan-power.net/
PLEASE come here!
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